City killer asteroid is coming: When will James Webb Telescope observe it?
12 Feb, 2025
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Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on 27 December 2024, and astronomers have been tracking its movement since then.
Discovery
As of 10 February 2025, there is a 98% chance that the asteroid will safely pass Earth on 22 December 2032, with ongoing efforts to refine this estimate.
Probability of Safe Passage
The asteroid will fade from view in a few months, making further observations difficult until it reappears in 2028, leaving some uncertainty about its exact orbit.
Visibility
Asteroid belt aITG 1739354469162
While the chance of impact is very low, and any potential impact would only have local effects, the situation is still being closely monitored by the global planetary defense community.
Impact Risk
The first detailed observations will occur in early March when the asteroid is at its brightest, followed by another round in May to study its temperature changes and refine orbital calculations.
Planned Observations
Astronomers worldwide are using powerful telescopes to measure the asteroid’s orbit as accurately as possible, but this data alone cannot determine the full impact risk.
Tracking Its Orbi
The asteroid’s estimated size ranges between 40 and 90 meters, and despite several follow-up observations, this estimate has remained largely unchanged since its discovery.